The New Aid Model
The polycrisis fueled by the Trump 2.0 shock treatment has pulled the rug under the traditional approaches to humanitarian and development work. A reduction in total ODA of up to around 60 - 70% is not unrealistic
Many of us have for years and even decades argued the fundamental crack lines in the humanitarian business model. Others have questioned the objectives and effectiveness of development aid. The needed changes have not materialized in any significant way.
Fundamental change is now required by force and circumstance. – see 60 -70% $ reduction
Here it is argued that this means an all-out approach to localization.
We need to erase the old terminology and start completely fresh.
We need a clean slate and build a new story
All crises or events are long term. Nothing has a quick fix. From anticipation to event to solution action
Ideally the “new” should be conceived by and led by situation or crisis hit countries
The starting point or foundation for any situation (crisis) is the national response mechanism (policy, structures and operational capacity) . any country always has something: national, regional local institutions, civil society, communities and private sector.
The event affected state will have to rely on its own financial resources and sector capacity. External support will be very limited and focused on advice, training and evidence and limited lifesaving narrowly defined with short exit.
As inspiration for how tackle situations without outside financial support, see for eksample Agha Khan foundation community evolution with a vision of self-empowerment through organization, skills building and savings. This is done without external input other than advice and training[1]. Consider this as the foundational approach and taken to national scale.
The event affected state has its own interpretation of the rule based (or lack thereof) global system, the UN charter, conventions and protocols and how that plays in to its policy development on the basis of the specific state’s framework conditions.
The event affected state will decide how to make use of the available evidence to influence its policy trajectory.
Some crises have a few days with basic lifesaving challenges. Water, food, emergency healthcare and temporary shelter. This should be handled by appropriate national services. If the affected state feels the need a request for limited external live saving support can be made as a last resort. Otherwise, normal sector services are at play for the long term situation action.
Primary focus has to be on national, regional and societal coping mechanism (individuals, societal and structural) and opportunities. First look at what opportunity the event presents and only thereafter review if there are any needs.
Crises hit countries may wish to consider reducing needs through inclusion
Crisis hit country specific framework conditions and sector standards apply.
Crisis hit countries may wish to consult global evidence to inform their policy trajectories and how this fits with their framework conditions. Key will be if and how countries with restrictive framework conditions will be interested in considering all the evidence or relevant evidence to influence their framework conditions and policies
Requests for any outside input technically or financially should be designed by and requested by the event affected state national actors.
Donors need to apply a risk free approach in how they use the remaining total of 30% ODA by shifting 90% direct to locals and 10 % to international out fits. ( i.e. 3% to internationals compared to the 90 %hey receive today……. This implies that international agencies will be significantly downsized to provide advice and training only plus limited extremely narrowly defined lifesaving direct implementation.
This new approach will require event affected states and donor states to by into the idea and to work it will need to be led by the global south
One consequence of the new context is that people will suffer to a larger degree from bad governance and be left to themselves to make changes to improve bad governance or force government change ( revolution). This is to some extent already happening in some places.
[1]https://www.akfc.ca/news/aga-khan-rural-support-programme-commemorates-40-years-of-community-led-development-in-pakistan/
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